Up like a Rocket, Down like a Feather

The title is how I have always seen gasoline pump prices go. It seems like when oil goes up $1 barrel, gas will jump that day. Forget the logic that says, there is no way oil got from the Oil Derrick, to the refinery and to the gas station to be pumped into my car in Southern Oregon the next day.

However, the second part of the statement is true also. The day prices go down, do the pump prices? Nope. It can take days or weeks to fall. The talking heads (the PR people, not the band) will tell you, "OH, it takes time to filter through..."

I have to say though, this time feels different. Maybe this is due to demand actually falling this time and the oil companies trying to stoke usage. Summer is their traditional big demand month and yet in June demand was 5.2% off!

According to this article prices are going to dip up to 25 cents more by Labor Day. Cannot come to soon. Energy has been a key driver (along with cheap money) of inflation. Perhaps we can escape the "Pit and the Pendulum" one more time!

Are the prices coming down where you are as well?

Oil Bubble to Finally Burst?

Oil has continued to slide in recent days and is back down to the $136 level today. It seemed just two weeks ago the it was going to be "$150 or Bust."

I know for us and across the internet I see more and more tlking obut how they have had to cut back, how small town especially are getting decimated, and how Congress is being beat up up pretty badly for letting this gett so out of control.

Could this be the, not the end of historically high oil/gas price. Not so sure, but to rip off Churchill...I hope it is at least the End of the Beginning!

If this has been an investor bubble, which I believe, oil would over-correct ala the houseing market. Regardless it is going to be a wild ride as no political office holder want to be running with $5 Gas hanging over their heads.

It is going to get interesting...

Save 15% off of your Gasoline Prices

I wish it was a coupon to print out, because traffic would go really crazy. However there is a pretty easy way (at least in theory!) to save 15% off of your overall gas spend. Given that here it is $3.45/Gallon now that is over 51 cents per gallon savings! That would help with my budget!

Ready!...Drive slower (I hear the groans).

Consumer Reports just did a pretty exhaustive survey to dig into the costs of driving faster. For example, if you drove a Toyota Camry on the highway set the cruise control at 65, then at 75, you would see that fuel economy changed. It would have been at 35 MPG then it dropped to 30 MPG, or 14.3% less! The older the car the worse it would be too.

Funny thing is last big oil crisis the government lowered the speed limit to 55, not for safety, but to save fuel! It stayed due to the safety issue.

Sure this isn't a deep thinking thing to save money "Burn More fuel=More Money" but for me it was realizing that it was nearly a 15% saving...that's real money, and can help with you personal finance!

Are Oil Hedge Funds to Blame?

The US is very shortly staring at $4 per gallon gas in its near future. Oil was at $108 a barrel today and given that those are 55 gallon barrels that is nearly $2 per gallon...for crude oil! The $1 Trillion Question is, Why?

What has changed in 24 months in order to send oil from $50 to over $100? Is it demand? Nope, demand is rising 10%+ and will probably slow down to very low growth due to consumers driving less. Has OPEC turned off the spicket? Nope. There have been fluxes, but for the most part...no. Iraq and Venezuela have been an issue, but not enough to cut supply by half. Which is what it would take to double the price (at least in a linear fashion). This report from WTRG shows more great slides to review for yourself.

From the report:

The U.S. petroleum industry's price has been heavily regulated through production or price controls throughout much of the twentieth century. In the post World War II era U.S. oil prices at the wellhead averaged $24.20 per barrel adjusted for inflation to 2006 dollars. In the absence of price controls the U.S. price would have tracked the world price averaging $26.16. Over the same post war period the median for the domestic and the adjusted world price of crude oil was $18.53 in 2006 prices. That means that only fifty percent of the time from 1947 to 2006 have oil prices exceeded $18.53 per barrel.

Until the March 28, 2000 adoption of the $22-$28 price band for the OPEC basket of crude, oil prices only exceeded $24.00 per barrel in response to war or conflict in the Middle East. With limited spare production capacity OPEC abandoned its price band in 2005 and was powerless to stem a surge in oil prices which was reminiscent of the late 1970s.

I was puzzled, why the super rise then? Then I ran across another, bit older article from Fortune about Oil Traders and Oil Hedge Funds. While this article is a bit out of date it really lays out where the groundwork for this bubble has come from. Oil Hedge Funds. Talk about printing money for the last three years!

It works like this: I think oil is gonna rise, so I buy a "future contract" for oil at x date at x price. The fellow I am buying the future is betting the other way. So let's say I think oils going to go to $125 by Christmas (Gosh I hope not, but as an illustration) I would put a bid out to get the lowest possible price for that December 2008 oil. Timmy thinks it is going to $115, so he is happy as punch to sell me all the oil I want for $125! So he takes my bid at $125...It is now December. Oil is at $150! I get to buy it at $125 and Timmy is selling it to me at that price, even though the market is $25 higher now. So I made $25 per barrel!

The only issue is that you do not have to hold it all the way to December. If the market looks like it is going against him Timmy can sell the contract off, probably at a loss, but better than it could have been.

When this is out of control it can become a real Ponzi Scheme, in Biblical terms you rob Paul to pay Peter. Exactly like what was going on with housing. The problem with a Ponzi Scheme is that you eventually run out of suckers and it crashes!

Which is exactly why OPEC doesn't want to jack production (even if they could) way up. They all expect a big crash. Irrational Exuberance, to quote Mr. Greenspan.

While the housing market (the other Ponzi Scheme) is to blame as well, oil touches every budget point, for everyone and I believe our biggest true inflation issue. They government could step in and freeze oil prices, but that would kill any reason for the oil companies to reinvest, which leads to higher future prices.

A crash is coming. And I hope it won't be too late!